Delay Risk
Probability of hitting target by planned end: 41%
Expected completion week (P50): W45
Current gap vs planned: 90 patients behind
Risk level: high
prototype 07
Enrollment Forecast (Monte Carlo)
Forecast enrollment trajectory with Monte Carlo simulation. Compare planned vs actual vs forecast and trigger delay alerts with mitigation actions.
Planned / Actual / Forecast
Planned (dashed)Actual (green)Forecast P50 (violet)Forecast Band P10-P90 (cyan)
Mitigation Plan
- Immediate footprint expansion with additional high-yield sites.
- Rebalance enrollment targets away from persistently delayed regions.
- Run weekly command-center review with country-level accountability.
How Monte Carlo Is Computed
1. Select trial-specific historical enrollment basis by therapeutic area and indication.
2. Compute weighted mean and volatility from historical weekly enrollment rates.
3. For each simulation path, sample weekly increment from N(mean, std), clipped at zero.
4. Aggregate paths into percentile envelopes (P10/P50/P90) and estimate delay probability.
increment_w ~ max(0, Normal(mu_weighted, sigma_weighted))
cumulative_w = cumulative_(w-1) + increment_w
Current mu=14.32/week, sigma=4.87/week from historical basis.
Historical Basis
ONC-NSCLC-214
US/EU · 74 sites
mean 14.6/week · std 4.9
startup delay P50: 32 days
ONC-NSCLC-198
APAC · 41 sites
mean 9.8/week · std 3.7
startup delay P50: 41 days
ONC-LU-177
Global · 88 sites
mean 16.2/week · std 5.4
startup delay P50: 35 days
update log
Prototype Change Log
2026-03-01 · v0.1.0
Monte Carlo Enrollment Forecast UI Added
- - Added XY-style enrollment chart for planned, actual, and forecast trajectories.
- - Added forecast uncertainty band (P10-P90) and P50 line from Monte Carlo simulation.
- - Added delay risk alert with mitigation plan and transparent simulation methodology.