Delay-Risiko
Wahrscheinlichkeit, Ziel bis Plan-Ende zu erreichen: 39%
Erwartete Zielwoche (P50): W45
Aktuelle Luecke ggü. Plan: 90 patients behind
Risk level: high
prototype 07
Enrollment Forecast (Monte Carlo)
Monte-Carlo-Prognose fuer Enrollment-Verlauf mit Vergleich von Plan, Ist und Forecast inklusive Delay-Warnung und Mitigation.
Plan / Ist / Forecast
Planned (dashed)Actual (green)Forecast P50 (violet)Forecast Band P10-P90 (cyan)
Mitigation-Plan
- Immediate footprint expansion with additional high-yield sites.
- Rebalance enrollment targets away from persistently delayed regions.
- Run weekly command-center review with country-level accountability.
Monte-Carlo-Berechnung
1. Select trial-specific historical enrollment basis by therapeutic area and indication.
2. Compute weighted mean and volatility from historical weekly enrollment rates.
3. For each simulation path, sample weekly increment from N(mean, std), clipped at zero.
4. Aggregate paths into percentile envelopes (P10/P50/P90) and estimate delay probability.
increment_w ~ max(0, Normal(mu_weighted, sigma_weighted))
cumulative_w = cumulative_(w-1) + increment_w
Current mu=14.32/week, sigma=4.87/week from historical basis.
Historische Basis
ONC-NSCLC-214
US/EU · 74 sites
mean 14.6/week · std 4.9
startup delay P50: 32 days
ONC-NSCLC-198
APAC · 41 sites
mean 9.8/week · std 3.7
startup delay P50: 41 days
ONC-LU-177
Global · 88 sites
mean 16.2/week · std 5.4
startup delay P50: 35 days
update log
Prototype Change Log
2026-03-01 · v0.1.0
Monte-Carlo-Enrollment-Forecast UI hinzugefuegt
- - XY-Chart fuer Plan-, Ist- und Forecast-Verlauf hinzugefuegt.
- - Unsicherheitsband (P10-P90) und P50-Prognose aus Monte-Carlo-Simulation integriert.
- - Delay-Risikoalarm mit Mitigation-Plan und transparenter Berechnungslogik hinzugefuegt.